The Euromaidan Price Tag

Economic Consequences of the Ukrainian Protests

At the beginning of May, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a $17 billion bailout package for Ukraine, with strings attached: Ukraine must devalue its currency and raise energy prices. The unrest in Ukraine has wreaked havoc on its economy, and its effects will not be limited to just within its borders.

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Ukraine

Ukraine’s currency has fallen in value with respect to the dollar, which makes paying back its massive debts much more difficult. But that’s just one of the problems the new leadership has to face.

CAPITAL FLIGHT

As the crisis worsens, investors will move their money abroad. Less investment will mean even slower economic growth in the future.

CURRENCY PROBLEMS

Ukraine's currency, the hryvnia, is falling in value. This will make paying off its massive foreign debt even harder.

SHRINKING ECONOMY

Economists expect the Ukrainian economy to contract by 7% this year and stagnate in 2015.

Russia

U.S. sanctions against Russia have hurt its economy, which is teetering on the verge of recession. Energy will continue to be a vital topic for Russia, the supplier of one-third of the EU’s gas.

Western Sanctions

European and American sanctions against Russian politicians and companies have made it more difficult to do business with Russia.

Stagnant GDP

Despite investment in the Sochi Olympics, falling domestic comsumption and investment means the economy will not grow this year.

Rising Inflation

As stocks and consumer confidence fall, inflation has spiked and the cost of living is climbing even higher.

European Union

Many European businesses will be affected by the crisis in Ukraine, with CEOs of major companies already speaking out. Decline in tourism rates will also hurt the still-recovering European economy.

Export Decline

The decline in value of Russian and Ukrainian currencies means that demand for European products will also fall. As a result, European exports to the east will drop.

Exposed Banks

Many European banks have invested in Russia, and they will see the value of their assets decrease as a result of the Western sanctions.

Food Prices

Ukraine is a major exporter of wheat and sunflower oil, and the prices of such products are rising in the world market.

United States

The American economy is not deeply connected with Ukraine’s, so it will not be hit as hard. However, there is a possibility of rising gas prices connected with the crisis in Ukraine.

Gas Exports

Knowing how dependent Europe is of Russian gas, the US has begun issuing permits to export American gas starting in 2015. The US is currently the world's largest natural gas producer.

US Bonds

As investors flee Ukraine, they might start buying much safer US Treasury bonds. This will lower interest rates, disrupting stock markets.

Sidebar: Energy

One of the largest fallouts of the crisis in Ukraine will be energy. Russia is the world's largest natural gas exporter, so any geopolitical strategies it pursues will be felt on a global scale.
The Energy Relationship
Russia is under contract to provide natural gas to much of Europe, and it cannot do so without using the pipelines running through Ukraine.
Gas as Leverage
Though Russia has a history of using its gas as political leverage, Gazprom, its natural gas extractor, fears declines in revenue as a result of falling sales in Europe. Russia is just as dependent on Europe's money.